SNB communication: Why a speech is not the same as a rate decision
Antoine Martin's speech explains how the National Bank conveys its mandate. The decisive point for the public and the markets: an explanation of the framework is not a new monetary policy assessment.
The Swiss National Bank left its key interest rate at 0 percent on 24 September. A speech by Vice-President Antoine Martin at the University of Neuchâtel now explains the monetary policy framework. The two are easily confused: the rate decision changes monetary conditions immediately, while a speech explains how the SNB understands its mandate and its instruments. Anyone who derives the next mortgage rate or a fixed franc exchange rate from it is reading too much into the words.
Even so, the SNB's communication matters. Central banks steer not only through decisions but also through expectations. If banks, companies and households can follow how the National Bank assesses inflation, the economy and the exchange rate, they can place their own decisions better. Unclear communication, by contrast, can amplify uncertainty and sharp market moves.
A speech is not a fourth assessment
The SNB makes its in-depth monetary policy assessments four times a year: in March, June, September and December. Each assessment is followed by a rate decision; the National Bank publishes a conditional inflation forecast for it and explains its decision. The speech of 7 October came two weeks after the most recent assessment. It is therefore neither a hidden additional decision nor an early message for the next date.
This chronological classification is the independent core of the topic. Markets may hang on every word from a member of the Governing Board. But the SNB's official decision-making logic remains a different one: analyse the situation, produce a forecast under a rate assumption, communicate the decision, and later publish a summary of the discussion. Anyone who mixes these levels quickly creates false expectations.
What the SNB actually decided
The SNB left the key interest rate at 0 percent in September. It justified the decision by stating that monetary policy was appropriate to keep inflation within the range of price stability and to support economic development. The conditional inflation forecast stood at 0.7 percent for 2026, 0.8 percent for 2027 and 0.8 percent for 2028. This forecast assumes that the key interest rate remains at 0 percent over the entire horizon.
The word “conditional” matters. The forecast is not a promise and not a certain prediction. It shows how inflation would develop under a clearly named assumption. If energy prices, the global economy, the exchange rate or trade policy change, the SNB's assessment can change as well.
The National Bank named precisely these uncertainties: the situation in the Middle East, energy prices, the trade environment and exchange rate developments. For the Swiss economy it continues to expect moderate growth. At the same time, capacity utilisation, particularly in industry, was below average, and unemployment had again risen slightly by early summer.
What that means for mortgages and savings
An SNB key interest rate of 0 percent does not mean that every mortgage becomes cheaper immediately, or that savings rates have to be at zero. Alongside the key rate, mortgage rates depend on term, refinancing, risk premiums, competition and the chosen interest-rate fixation. A ten-year fixed mortgage often reacts differently from a money-market mortgage.
For savers, the same applies in reverse. Banks decide for themselves what interest they pay on accounts. Falling or stable key rates can reduce the room for savings rates, but they do not oblige any single bank to a particular rate. Anyone planning their own financing or investment should therefore compare offers and not just watch the next SNB date.
This is not hair-splitting. Especially with high housing costs and large mortgage debts, the wrong expectation can become expensive. A central bank sets the framework; the concrete contract term emerges in the market.
The franc is an instrument, not a target rate
In September the SNB again stated that it was prepared to become active in the foreign exchange market if necessary in order to ensure appropriate monetary conditions. That is not a commitment to defend a particular franc value against the euro or the dollar. The National Bank does not publish a target rate.
The exchange rate affects inflation and the competitiveness of companies. A weaker franc can make imported goods more expensive but support exporting firms. A stronger franc can, conversely, dampen inflation and weigh on export margins. The SNB therefore assesses the overall picture rather than a single currency threshold.
Trust arises through comprehensible limits
Since September 2025, the SNB has also been publishing summaries of its monetary policy discussions four weeks after its assessments. That does not offer a look into the future, but it increases the traceability of the decisions. For Switzerland this is valuable: in uncertain times, households and companies do not need spurious precision. They need an institution that explains its mandate, discloses its assumptions and remains able to act when new facts emerge.
The most recent lecture is therefore above all a reminder of the right order: first the statutory mandate of price stability, then the analysis of the situation, and finally the rate decision. Anyone who separates these levels understands better what the SNB can do for the Swiss economy – and what it cannot.
