Health Insurance Premiums 2027: Forecasts Diverge Widely
Bonus.ch expects 4.5 to 5 percent higher premiums. The SMSR considers an increase of 2 to 2.5 percent appropriate.
2027 Premiums Not Yet Announced
For Swiss policyholders, another rise in health insurance premiums is anticipated for 2027. The exact extent of this increase remains unclear. The comparison portal bonus.ch currently forecasts an average increase of 4.5 to 5 percent.
A significantly lower estimate comes from the Société médicale de la Suisse romande (SMSR). The Western Swiss medical association considers an increase of 2 to 2.5 percent for the coming year appropriate. It argues that currently available cost data do not justify a higher increase. (bonus.ch)
The official premiums for 2027 are not yet finalised. The Federal Council or the Federal Office of Public Health will announce the new premiums in autumn. Until then, the figures mentioned are forecasts, not the actual premiums to be paid.
Bonus.ch Again Expects Around Five Percent
Bonus.ch currently sees no fundamental easing of healthcare costs. The portal considers an average premium increase of between 4.5 and 5 percent to be the most likely scenario.
In 2026, health insurance premiums already rose by an average of 4.4 percent. According to bonus.ch, several factors suggest that cost pressure will remain high for 2027. These include persistently rising healthcare expenditure, delayed billing following the introduction of new outpatient tariffs, and a potential catch-up effect in premium calculation. (bonus.ch)
However, the national average says little about what individual policyholders will actually pay. Differences can be significant depending on the health insurer, canton, premium region, age, deductible, and insurance model.
Bonus.ch therefore considers increases of more than 10 percent possible for individual health insurers or tariff categories. In the worst-case scenario, some premiums could even rise by up to 20 percent. This is expressly not a forecast for the Swiss average but an assessment of possible extreme cases. (bonus.ch)
SMSR Considers 2 to 2.5 Percent Sufficient
The SMSR assesses the situation much more cautiously. According to its evaluation, there is currently no sufficient basis for another sharp increase in premiums.
The medical association specifically points to the still incomplete cost data for 2026. Due to the introduction of TARDOC, there are delays in billing for outpatient services. Consequently, a portion of the services actually rendered only appears later in the statistics.
The SMSR argues that a potentially temporary cost surge should not automatically be passed on entirely to policyholders. Considering the remaining costs of mandatory health insurance, it deems a premium increase of 2 to 2.5 percent a justifiable maximum. (smsr.ch)
TARDOC Complicates Forecast
A significant reason for the unusually high uncertainty is the transition of the outpatient tariff system. Since early 2026, outpatient services are being billed via TARDOC and outpatient flat fees, among other methods.
The existing cost figures therefore present a contradictory picture. In the first quarter of 2026, basic health insurance costs rose by 2.9 percent compared to the previous year. In the second quarter, however, the increase was only 0.4 percent.
However, this low figure does not automatically mean that healthcare costs have stabilised significantly. The introduction of the new tariffs led to billing delays. According to bonus.ch, recorded outpatient costs temporarily fell by approximately 16 percent in the second quarter. Invoices received later can significantly alter these statistics. (medinside.ch)
The extent of the distortion is evident when examining individual service groups. In the second quarter, costs for Spitex services rose by 15 percent compared to the previous year. For psychologists and psychotherapists, the increase was 11 percent, and for outpatient doctors and physiotherapy, it was 7 percent each. Simultaneously, overall recorded outpatient costs decreased. (bonus.ch)
KOF Continues to Expect Rising Healthcare Costs
A third perspective comes from the KOF Economic Research Centre at ETH Zurich. Its latest forecast assumes that healthcare costs per insured person will rise by approximately 4.5 percent in 2026 and by another 4 percent in 2027.
The KOF forecast for cost development thus falls between the two current positions: it still expects significant growth, but a slight slowdown compared to 2026. The KOF does not anticipate a fundamental change in trend. (bonus.ch)
Key Forecasts for 2027
- SMSR: 2 to 2.5 percent premium increase as justifiable maximum
- KOF: approximately 4 percent cost growth per insured person
- Bonus.ch: 4.5 to 5 percent average premium increase
- Federal government: official premiums for 2027 not yet announced
Health Insurers' Reserves Have Risen Again
Another point of contention is the reserves of health insurers. At the beginning of 2026, insurers held a total of approximately 8.6 billion Swiss francs. A year earlier, this figure was around 7.3 billion Swiss francs.
The financial situation has thus improved. According to bonus.ch, insurers achieved a total surplus of almost 569 million Swiss francs in 2025, which was fully allocated to reserves. The SMSR sees this as a reason why reserves could be used more strongly as a buffer, at least temporarily. (bonus.ch)
Bonus.ch, however, assesses the effect more cautiously. While reserves could limit premium pressure, they could not permanently offset a sustained annual increase in healthcare expenditure of 4 to 5 percent. (medinside.ch)
The differing assessments show what the dispute ultimately concerns: The SMSR wants to use reserves more extensively as a short-term buffer. Bonus.ch, conversely, maintains that premiums must follow actual cost developments in the long term.
Regional Differences Also Expected to Be Significant
The national average conceals significant differences between cantons. According to bonus.ch, current cost data for the second quarter of 2026 range from an increase of 9.6 percent in Schaffhausen to a decrease of 8.7 percent in Zug.
Other cantons also show distinctly different trends. Glarus, Graubünden, Jura, and Zurich recorded rising costs in the second quarter, while Solothurn, Basel-Stadt, Bern, Thurgau, and Geneva, among others, showed declining figures. (bonus.ch)
However, these figures do not yet allow direct conclusions about subsequent premiums in individual cantons. Premiums depend not only on cost development but also on the respective health insurer, premium region, age group, and insurance type.
Why Forecasts Diverge So Widely
The wide range between 2 and 5 percent can primarily be explained by differing assumptions. Bonus.ch assumes that current cost increases will become more apparent in the data after billing delays and that a certain catch-up effect in premiums will occur.
The SMSR, however, contends that data for 2026 are still incomplete and that a portion of the cost development is distorted by the tariff system change. Furthermore, insurers' reserves are specifically intended to absorb fluctuations.
Neither figure is therefore already the federal government's premium forecast. What will be decisive is how actual costs develop in the coming months and what data will be available to the federal government for calculating 2027 premiums.
What This Means for Policyholders
For policyholders, the current situation primarily means one thing: Uncertainty is unusually high. There is a significant difference between the SMSR forecast of 2 to 2.5 percent and bonus.ch's estimate of 4.5 to 5 percent.
Additionally, the national average reveals little about individual premiums. Factors such as canton of residence, premium region, age, deductible, insurance model, and health insurer are crucial. According to bonus.ch, individual policyholders could therefore be affected significantly more than the national average.
However, a definitive statement about 2027 premiums is not yet possible. Only with the official announcement in autumn will it be clear how much average premiums will actually increase.
No Easing Is Yet in Sight
Current forecasts do not present a uniform picture. The SMSR sees room for a significantly more moderate premium development, while bonus.ch and KOF continue to expect substantial cost pressure.
What is currently certain is that the introduction of new outpatient tariffs complicates the assessment. The coming months will show which costs are retrospectively recorded and whether the expected catch-up effect actually materialises.
For policyholders, it therefore remains unclear for now whether another sharp premium increase awaits in 2027, or whether the improved financial situation of health insurers and incomplete cost data will allow for a significantly more moderate development.
The official answer will only be provided by the federal government in autumn.
Sources
- bonus.ch, Forecast for health insurance premiums 2027, September 8, 2026
- Société médicale de la Suisse romande (SMSR), Assessment on premiums 2027, September 1, 2026
- Medinside, "Forecast: Premiums could rise by almost 5 percent again," September 8, 2026
- KOF at ETH Zurich, Forecasts on healthcare cost development
