Vote on 27 September: Both initiatives trail in the latest SRG poll
The neutrality and food initiatives both show clear no majorities. But the survey measures the position as of 5 September – and is no substitute for a forecast.
Shortly before the federal vote on 27 September, both the neutrality initiative and the food initiative trail clearly in the latest published SRG trend poll. That is politically significant, but it is not a forecast for Sunday: the survey reflects the position as of 5 September, around three weeks before polling day.
Neutrality initiative: the no camp clearly ahead
On the neutrality initiative, 34 percent of respondents said they would definitely or probably vote yes, and 63 percent definitely or probably no. Compared with the first survey wave, the yes share fell by eight percentage points, while the no share gained nine points. Only three percent were still undecided.
Opinion-forming is already far advanced here. 83 percent described their decision as firm – ten points more than in the first wave. The assessment of arguments points the same way: the eligible voters surveyed rated the opposing arguments as clearly stronger overall than those of the supporters.
A reversal would therefore be politically demanding. It is not impossible: polls capture intentions, not votes cast. Postal ballots returned after the survey date, the final mobilisation push and differing turnout between the camps remain outside the snapshot.
Food initiative loses support
On the food initiative, the movement between the two survey waves is even more pronounced. At the beginning of August, support and opposition were practically level. By 5 September, yes stood at only 33 percent and no at 64 percent. The yes share lost 14 percentage points.
At the same time, opinion-forming was less settled than on the neutrality initiative. 71 percent said they had made a firm decision. That is a clear majority, but it leaves more room than the other proposal. It is also striking that individual aims of the initiative met with more sympathy in the argument assessment than the proposal as a whole. Support for a goal therefore does not automatically mean support for the proposed constitutional route.
What the margin of error means
GFS Bern puts the statistical uncertainty for the proposals at around plus or minus 2.8 percentage points at a confidence level of 95 percent. Even if that range is interpreted in favour of the yes camp, a clear gap remains for both initiatives. The uncertainty of the sample is therefore not large enough to turn the published figures into a neck-and-neck race.
This margin of error does not, however, cover every possible deviation. Late events, differences between those surveyed and those who actually vote, or groups that are hard to reach can influence the result further. The cantonal distribution also counts: a popular initiative requires a majority of the cantons as well as a majority of the people. Nationwide approval alone would not be enough.
Mobilisation remains the open factor
49 percent said they would definitely take part. That is somewhat above the long-term average of 47.4 percent and five points higher than in the first survey wave. A stated intention to vote is still not the same as the officially recorded turnout.
For the final days, the political task therefore shifts. The no sides are trying to convert their lead into actual votes. The initiative committees must at the same time persuade the undecided and mobilise those already sympathetic. On the food initiative, the greater openness in decision-making could offer somewhat more room; the numerical deficit, however, remains considerable.
What the comparison of the two proposals shows
The two curves also show how differently campaigns can work. On the neutrality initiative, an already visible no trend has solidified. On the food initiative, an initially open starting position tipped clearly. Arguments, senders, media events and growing familiarity with the specific constitutional amendment can all play a role. The poll cannot prove these causes; it only measures how the stated intentions changed between two points in time.
No pre-empting of voting day
The latest SRG poll thus paints a consistent picture: both initiatives lost support over the course of the campaign, and the no camps lead clearly. But it does not say how Switzerland «will decide». Only the counted votes and cantonal results on Sunday are binding.
The journalistically sound finding is therefore: the starting position speaks clearly against both proposals. Anyone who turns that into a result already is confusing a three-week-old snapshot with the democratic decision.
