Iceland's EU Rapprochement: A Signal for Switzerland?
A look back at the polls before Iceland voted against renewed EU talks
Update, 27 September 2026: In the referendum on 29 August 2026, 52.8% voted against restarting EU accession talks and 47.2% voted in favour; turnout was 82.6%. This article was published on 27 August and records the polls and arguments before the vote. Passages describing the ballot as still to come reflect the situation at that time. Official result.
Iceland ahead of its EU referendum: a tight race over resuming accession talks
A narrow majority of Icelanders favours resuming EU accession negotiations shortly before a landmark referendum. A poll by the Maskína institute published on Wednesday puts support at 51.3 percent against 48.7 percent opposed among respondents who chose a side. The race is therefore extremely close.
On Saturday, 29 August, Icelanders will actually decide on this question. It is not yet about joining the EU, however. The vote is only on whether Iceland should resume accession negotiations with the European Union. An accession treaty negotiated later would have to be approved in a second referendum.
A tight race before the referendum
The latest poll was conducted by Maskína between 21 and 25 August among 1,019 people. Respondents were drawn from a panel that, according to the institute, is randomly compiled from the Icelandic population register. The answers were weighted by gender, age, place of residence and level of education.
Among those who stated a decision, 51.3 percent intend to vote in favour of resuming negotiations and 48.7 percent against. In the previous Maskína poll of 13 August, the ratio was still 52.2 to 47.8 percent. The supporters' lead has thus narrowed further.
It can therefore hardly be called a clear majority. With a gap of just 2.6 percentage points, polling uncertainty, undecided voters and differing mobilisation of the two camps could be decisive. The poll is a snapshot, not a forecast of the result.
It is also notable that the vote asks a precisely defined question. The government does not want an immediate vote on EU membership, but first on whether the negotiation process should be resumed. Prime Minister Kristrún Frostadóttir told parliament that Iceland would only join the EU after two referendums: first on resuming the process and later on a negotiated accession treaty.
Iceland has negotiated with the EU before
The possible change of course is not entirely new. Iceland applied for EU membership back in 2009. Accession negotiations began in 2010 and were put on hold after a change of government in 2013. At that point, 27 of the 33 substantive negotiating chapters had been opened and eleven provisionally closed.
In 2015, the Icelandic government of the day informed the EU that Iceland should no longer be regarded as a candidate country. The application itself, however, was never formally withdrawn. The Icelandic government points out that the European Commission has confirmed the application remains valid.
The population is now to decide whether the process interrupted at that time should be resumed. The referendum stems from an initiative of the coalition of Social Democrats, the Reform Party and the People's Party that has governed since the end of 2024. The Icelandic parliament decided to hold the vote on 28 May 2026.
Already closely tied to the EU
For Iceland, possible EU membership would not mean a step from a largely independent position to full integration into the European market. The country is already closely tied to the EU.
Iceland is a member of the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) and is integrated into the European single market through the European Economic Area (EEA). The country is also part of the Schengen Area. Through the EEA, Iceland adopts a considerable share of the EU rules relevant to the single market, but has no voting rights in the EU institutions.
This is precisely one of the arguments of those in favour of EU membership: Iceland already adopts numerous European rules, but has no vote in the European Parliament and no seat in the Council of the EU when they are finally decided. EU membership would fundamentally change this political participation.
On the other side is the question of national sovereignty. Fishing is a particularly sensitive issue in Iceland. Control over its own fishing resources has not only economic but also historical and political significance for the country. Fishing was already a central point of contention during the earlier accession negotiations.
Iceland and Switzerland: similar – but not the same
A comparison with Switzerland suggests itself. Neither country is an EU member, and both are closely linked economically with the Union. Their institutional models, however, differ considerably.
Through the EEA, Iceland is fundamentally integrated into the EU single market. Switzerland, by contrast, has opted for sectoral cooperation through bilateral agreements. It rejected joining the EEA in the referendum of 6 December 1992, with 50.34 percent voting no.
The bilateral path has been expanded step by step over the past decades. It allows Switzerland to take part in the EU single market in certain areas without being a member of the EEA. The key areas include the free movement of persons, land and air transport, and the mutual recognition of certain product requirements.
This relationship is also currently changing. Switzerland and the EU signed their new "Bilaterals III" package on 2 March 2026. In March, the Federal Council adopted the corresponding dispatch for parliament. The package is intended to stabilise and further develop bilateral relations and provides, among other things, for new agreements on electricity, health and food safety.
The comparison with Iceland should therefore not be taken too far. Iceland and Switzerland pursue different models of European integration. While Iceland takes part in the single market through the EEA, Switzerland relies on sector-based bilateral access.
What a yes in Iceland could mean for Switzerland
A yes to resuming Iceland's EU negotiations would have no direct legal consequences for Switzerland. Switzerland's agreements with the EU would not be affected.
Politically, however, the vote would still be of interest. Iceland would be a further example of a small European state reassessing its existing close economic and legal ties with the EU. This is not only about economic questions. The geopolitical situation, the war in Ukraine and the growing strategic importance of the North Atlantic have also changed the debate in Iceland.
For Switzerland, what is particularly interesting is that Iceland faces a decision even though it is already closely integrated into the European single market through the EEA. At the same time, this shows the limits of the comparison: the political, economic and institutional conditions of the two countries are different.
An Icelandic yes would therefore not prove that the EEA or Switzerland's bilateral path had failed. Nor would a no be evidence that the existing models are fundamentally superior.
Only the beginning of a possible EU accession
Even a yes on 29 August would not automatically lead to EU membership. It would first be a mandate to resume negotiations. The Icelandic government expects that, if both sides are willing, talks could be concluded within about 18 to 24 months.
After that, the population would have to decide again. Only if this second step also ends with a yes could Iceland actually become a member of the European Union.
Above all, the current poll therefore shows one thing: Iceland is on the verge of a decision of principle on the next step – not on EU membership itself.
At 51.3 to 48.7 percent, the race is open a few days before the referendum. Whether Icelanders will open the door to new accession negotiations or continue their own path outside the EU will be decided on 29 August.
