VAT 2024: why two official figures diverge
The new ESTV statistics report CHF 27.182 billion in net tax claims; the state accounts booked CHF 26.930 billion. Different cut-off dates lie behind the gap.
The VAT statistics for 2024 published on Monday contain two figures that at first glance contradict each other. Its overview shows a net tax claim of CHF 27.182 billion. Alongside it stands CHF 26.930 billion "according to the state accounts". The difference of around CHF 252 million is not an arithmetic error. It arises because the two official series choose a different point in time for recording the tax claim. Anyone who wants to derive a statement about additional revenue from future tax increases must first distinguish between these two concepts.
One tax, two calendars
The Excel publication by the Federal Tax Administration (ESTV) counts, for its statistics, claims that arose in reporting year 2024. The state accounts, by contrast, record claims that were booked between 1 January and 31 December 2024. After the end of their settlement period, companies generally have 60 days to declare the tax. Claims for the final quarter of a year therefore do not necessarily enter the same annual accounts. The ESTV explains this cut-off on sheet 2.1 of its new workbook.
The difference is decisive for comparisons. The CHF 27.182 billion in the statistics is not simply the amount the Confederation booked as revenue in 2024. The state accounts cite around CHF 26.930 billion. According to the ESTV 2024 activity report, that figure was around CHF 1.782 billion above the previous year. A comparison with the 2023 net tax claim from the new statistics, however, would mix two different year cut-offs.
Imports account for almost half the claim
Of the CHF 27.182 billion net tax claim in the statistics, around CHF 15.013 billion falls to the ESTV and CHF 12.169 billion to the Federal Office for Customs and Border Security (BAZG). That corresponds to 55.2 and 44.8 per cent respectively. The second part concerns the VAT levied on imports. According to the ESTV, it cannot be broken down by the same criteria as the amounts declared by domestic taxable persons. A sector ranking by the ESTV therefore does not explain the entire tax claim.
Another peculiarity: companies may deduct the tax paid on purchased goods and services as input tax, provided the statutory conditions are met. A high tax on turnover therefore does not directly allow conclusions about an equally high net contribution or about the tax burden on customers. In the statistical part of the workbook, for example, 2024 shows around CHF 113.513 billion in tax on turnover and around CHF 98.500 billion in deductible input tax. The ESTV's net tax claim accordingly amounts to only a fraction of the first figure. These magnitudes are not additional federal revenue that could be added together.
No table on the shopping basket
The new publication breaks companies down by economic sector, turnover size, legal form and tax amount classes. It is therefore useful for examining the structure of VAT-liable businesses. But it does not directly show what share of the tax is ultimately borne by low- or high-income households. The sector of a settling company is not identical with the consumption area of a buyer; supply chains and input tax deductions lie in between.
The ESTV also names the limits of the data base. Certain services, for instance in health, education or culture, are exempt from the tax. Not all turnover connected with them appears fully in the settlements. Amounts claimed outside ordinary declarations and subsequent corrections are likewise not included in every table. That matters when tax statistics are read as a complete picture of consumption.
Since January 2024, the standard rate of 8.1 per cent, the reduced rate of 2.6 per cent and the special rate of 3.8 per cent for certain accommodation services have applied. The year-on-year comparison requires additional caution. Because the tax rates were raised at the start of 2024, a rate change and changes in turnover, prices and imports fall into the same observation period. The reported increase therefore cannot be attributed to a single cause without further calculation. Likewise, multiplying the entire 2024 tax revenue by a proposed increase would not be a robust revenue forecast: reduced and exempt services, input tax deductions and future behaviour are missing from such a calculation.
In a debate about an increase, however, how much accrued in 2024 is not the only thing that counts. What would be decisive are the concrete design, the services affected and the behaviour of companies and consumers. The statistics provide a verified starting point – not a finished distributional calculation and not a forecast for a new tax.
