Trump demands new Ukrainian leadership – US license for Russian diesel
A US general license permits certain transactions until April 2027. Whether the announced deliveries will happen and what price effect they will have remains open.
The news from Washington has two levels that many headlines merge into one: a concrete US license under sanctions law and a political attack on Ukraine's leadership. After a conversation with Vladimir Putin, Donald Trump held out the prospect of Russian diesel deliveries and later said Ukraine needed new leadership capable of making a deal. What is documented is therefore not a completed trade contract – but a time-limited legal opening and a noticeably harsher tone towards Kyiv.
Archive photo: Volodymyr Zelensky and Donald Trump at a meeting in New York on 25 September 2019. The image is not connected to the current events discussed here. Photo: The Presidential Office of Ukraine / CC BY 4.0 / via Wikimedia Commons.
An exemption with a fixed expiry date
On 9 October the US Treasury Department issued General License 135. It permits certain transactions involving diesel of Russian origin, including sale, delivery, discharge and import into the United States. The authorisation is limited until 7 April 2027. The wording matters: this is an exception from sanctions for designated business transactions, not a contract covering specific volumes, prices or delivery dates. The license itself contains no commitment by Russia and no proof that fuel has already been delivered.
The license also does not answer whether the announced volumes will actually be transported or reach the market. That would require confirmed delivery data, customs data or statements from the companies involved. The OFAC license contains no such evidence; it governs only whether certain transactions are permissible.
300,000 tonnes: an announcement, not proof of delivery
After the conversation with Putin, Trump wrote that Russia would deliver “immediately” more than 300,000 tonnes of diesel for the US and world markets; the Associated Press documented the announcement and the political conflict that followed. The Kremlin for its part stated that Russia was ready to supply oil and petroleum products to American and other markets. Both statements show that the delivery question is being negotiated in public. They do not, however, prove a delivery that has already arrived or any price effect at filling stations. The volumes cited in the debate are, for now, public announcements – not an independently confirmed trade balance.
A political demand, not a removal procedure
The following day, according to AP, Trump said Ukraine should get a new president or leader who could make a deal. That is a far-reaching political demand on a partner state. It does not, however, create any procedure described in the cited US documents for removing the Ukrainian leadership. Anyone who derives a formal removal or an already-decided change of power from it goes beyond what the facts support. The immediate political effect lies rather in public pressure: Washington links the prospect of economic opening towards Moscow with sharp criticism of Kyiv's president.
Kyiv warns of new revenue for Russia
The Ukrainian presidential administration placed the matter in a broader context. In a statement about a conversation between Volodymyr Zelensky and France's President Emmanuel Macron, it said that easing sanctions on petroleum products carried the risk of additional revenue that Russia could use to continue its war. That is a political assessment by the Ukrainian side, not a measurement of money that has actually flowed. It does, however, make the core of the conflict visible: for Kyiv this is not only about diesel, but about whether new sales channels expand Russia's financial room for manoeuvre.
What the step means for Switzerland – and what it does not
For Swiss companies this means above all: a US general license is not a Swiss permit. According to a SECO FAQ, sanctions measures imposed by third states generally have no direct effect in Switzerland. Insofar as a transaction is subject to Swiss sanctions law, the Ordinance on Measures in Connection with the Situation in Ukraine (SR 946.231.176.72) remains legally decisive. Among other things, the ordinance covers restrictions on crude oil and petroleum products. Whether a specific transaction would be permissible depends, for example, on origin, route, the persons involved and the provisions applicable in the individual case. The present matter does not answer that individual question. A Swiss import right or a price forecast therefore cannot be derived from the American exception.
Above all, the case shows how quickly three different things can be conflated: a time-limited legal exception, a presidential delivery announcement and a demand for political change in Kyiv. What holds up is that Washington opens the way for certain diesel transactions from Russia until April 2027 and that Trump publicly questions Zelensky's leadership. What remains open is whether, when and under what conditions the announced volumes will flow – and what economic consequences actually follow from them.
Sources
- US Treasury Department (OFAC), General License 135
- US Treasury Department (OFAC), notice of 9 October
- Associated Press, report on the diesel announcement and Trump's demand
- Kremlin, statement on the phone call
- Office of the President of Ukraine, statement on the conversation with Emmanuel Macron
- SECO FAQ: applicability of sanctions imposed by third states
- SECO, measures in connection with the situation in Ukraine
- Swiss legal basis: SR 946.231.176.72 (Fedlex)
- Image: The Presidential Office of Ukraine, 25 September 2019, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons
- Image licence: CC BY 4.0
